Breaking down winter storm scenarios for Thursday in Metro Detroit

4Warn Weather – I feel like you and I have gotten to a point where we can talk openly about something called a “Rain/Snow line,” and you will understand exactly what I mean.

Several times this winter, in the early days leading up to a storm, we have talked about getting either an inch of snow or several inches of snow based on where the rain/snow line sets up. Well, “Here we snow again,” folks!

Since we last had an inch or more of snow here in Southeast Lower Michigan on Jan. 30, here is a refresher on why the rain/snow line is important.

A storm system looks to be setting up to track right along I-94 sometime Thursday morning. The northern edge of the storm will be cold enough for all snow, the southern warmer side a mix of snow and rain.

This is where forecasting total snow amounts gets tricky, especially 3 days out.

As of Monday, the storm system is taking shape over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Washington and Oregon. That’s pretty darn far away, and a lot can change as it makes its way across the Northern U.S. over the next few days.

This is not a huge storm. The duration of snow and/or rain will only be about six hours. It’s all in the timing and the setup of the rain/snow line.

Sound familiar? Trust me, I get it.

Here is where things stand based on my data as of Monday evening.

Precipitation moves in from the west around sunrise Thursday morning, which is just after 7:30 a.m. Based on forecast temps being at or slightly above freezing, most of what falls during the morning commute will be all snow.

We will likely have a period of moderate snow, with the heaviest north of I-69. Current data suggest 2-5 inches, with the highest totals up in the thumb.

Take a look at this snapshot from the European model at 8 a.m. Thursday. Blue indicates all snow, pink is a mix of rain and snow, and green is all rain.

Now look at the same model at 2 p.m. That rain/snow line has edged to the north, and part of the southern half of Metro Detroit is all rain.

This is due to a surge of warm air moving up from the south, bringing our temps into the mid-to-upper 30s.

Over the next 48 hours, the 4Warn Weather Team will be tracking data that will either stay consistent with the current setup or perhaps move the dreaded rain/snow line further north or south.

Any movement will cause a tweak in the forecast.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, we will start getting more high-resolution data that is often better and more specific.

If you’d like to follow the data along with me over the next couple of days and track the storm, that sounds great! If you have no interest and just want to know what you’ll be facing Thursday morning, not a problem.

The 4Warn Weather team along with the 4 Warn Weather app will have you covered!

On a positive note, spring is just over 35 days away!

Find the latest forecast from the 4Warn Weather team here

Remember to download the free 4Warn weather app — it’s easily one of the best in the nation. Just search your app store under WDIV and it’s right there available for both iPhones and Androids! Or click the appropriate link below.