The next several days in Northern California will be dry and warm for late January, but recent headlines have been pointing attention towards wetter weather for the West Coast as February begins.The KCRA 3 weather team has rain chances in the forecast late Wednesday through Friday next week. This rain will be fueled by an atmospheric river system, but so far, the impacts look very manageable for the region. What is an atmospheric river?Decades of research have defined an atmospheric river as a long, thin stream of water vapor carried from the very moist tropical latitudes toward the much drier high latitudes.If that water vapor gets pulled into an area of low pressure and that low then interacts with land, rain and snow are produced.Storms that interact with atmospheric rivers can produce heavy rain in Northern California, but a weaker combination can produce light rain with relatively little impact.How much can forecasters tell us beyond next week?A weather forecast is most accurate and detailed in the short range. When we’re a day or two from a storm, things like specific rain and snow timing, amounts and any potential flooding can be forecast with high confidence.The further out in time a weather model tries to predict, the less accurate and less detailed that model’s forecast will be. That’s because one of any countless number of changes within the atmosphere can significantly impact the resulting weather days to weeks away.That is why you often see small changes to days six and seven of the KCRA 3 7-day forecast.Beyond 10 days, weather forecast models tend to perform poorly. Meteorologists may look at what models are showing that far out, but they’re focused on broader trends rather than specific timing or temperatures.What’s in the forecast for Northern California?As of Friday evening, dry weather is going to last for the next several days. The weekend will have lots of clouds but it will be mild. Temperatures may reach 70 degrees early next week.A weather system connected to an atmospheric river will start impacting Northern California late Wednesday. A steady, soaking rain is expected through part of Thursday with more light rain possible Friday. While it is too soon to predict specific rainfall amounts, the risk of any damage from flooding or wind is low.
The next several days in Northern California will be dry and warm for late January, but recent headlines have been pointing attention towards wetter weather for the West Coast as February begins.
The KCRA 3 weather team has rain chances in the forecast late Wednesday through Friday next week.
This rain will be fueled by an atmospheric river system, but so far, the impacts look very manageable for the region.
What is an atmospheric river?
Decades of research have defined an atmospheric river as a long, thin stream of water vapor carried from the very moist tropical latitudes toward the much drier high latitudes.
If that water vapor gets pulled into an area of low pressure and that low then interacts with land, rain and snow are produced.
Storms that interact with atmospheric rivers can produce heavy rain in Northern California, but a weaker combination can produce light rain with relatively little impact.
How much can forecasters tell us beyond next week?
A weather forecast is most accurate and detailed in the short range. When we’re a day or two from a storm, things like specific rain and snow timing, amounts and any potential flooding can be forecast with high confidence.
The further out in time a weather model tries to predict, the less accurate and less detailed that model’s forecast will be. That’s because one of any countless number of changes within the atmosphere can significantly impact the resulting weather days to weeks away.
That is why you often see small changes to days six and seven of the KCRA 3 7-day forecast.
Beyond 10 days, weather forecast models tend to perform poorly. Meteorologists may look at what models are showing that far out, but they’re focused on broader trends rather than specific timing or temperatures.
What’s in the forecast for Northern California?
As of Friday evening, dry weather is going to last for the next several days.
The weekend will have lots of clouds but it will be mild. Temperatures may reach 70 degrees early next week.
A weather system connected to an atmospheric river will start impacting Northern California late Wednesday. A steady, soaking rain is expected through part of Thursday with more light rain possible Friday.
While it is too soon to predict specific rainfall amounts, the risk of any damage from flooding or wind is low.
Read More: What is an atmospheric river, and how will one impact Northern California next week?
