Storm system breakdown: Rain/Snow line cuts right across southern Michigan

A fast-moving storm system is still going to lay down a swath of solid snow across Lower Michigan. It just depends on which side of the rain/snow line you are on as to how much snow you will shovel on Thursday.

The rain/snow line will run straight west to east. The rain/snow line will stretch from Grand Rapids to Flint. In this case, include Grand Rapids and Flint on the more rainy side of the line. You’ll have to be just north of Grand Rapids and just north of Flint to be in mostly all snow.

Let’s just look at our weather situation from the rain/snow line southward. The information in this article is for Grand Rapids, Lansing, Flint, Kalamazoo, Jackson, Ann Arbor, the Detroit area and far southern Michigan.

On the northern side of this area, you may have a few hour period of accumulating snow and a quick one to two inches of snow. As the temperature warms up to 34 degrees or more the snow will melt, at least off the roads.

Here’s the radar forecast showing when we get precipitation and how the snow is just north of our southern Michigan area.

Precipitation could start as a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures will warm above freezing by 10 a.m. Thursday from Grand Rapids to Lansing to Flint and southward. This will change the precipitation over to rain. Here’s a good look at the radar forecast at 10 a.m. While this model shows sleet in orange and freezing rain in pink, most things point to snow changing right to rain. Just keep an eye on the road around 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. in case it is cold enough for very brief freezing rain before the changeover to rain.

The temperature forecast by 10 a.m. shows Grand Rapids at 37 degrees. We don’t get road problems with a temperature five degrees above freezing. Lansing will be at 36 degrees and melting quickly. Ann Arbor and the Detroit area will be around 35 degrees and melting. Flint, Oakland County and Macomb County will be around freezing at 10 a.m. and heading to 35 degrees by noon.

Here’s a total snowfall forecast showing the sharp cutoff from meaty snow just to our north to no accumulation in our part of southern Michigan.

The exact placement of the rain/snow line will mean the difference between a few inches of snow and no snow. Kent County and the Grand Rapids area is right under the rain/snow line. The Flint area is also right under the rain/snow line. This winter everything leans toward the warmer side which means that idea should continue with this storm system.

Let’s call Ann Arbor, Detroit, Lansing, Jackson, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek little or no snow. Grand Rapids and Flint should have a quick 1-3 inches of snow in just a few hours Thursday morning and then have the snow start to melt.

If you are driving north, it’s a different story with a solid 2 to 5 inches of snow to the Mackinac Bridge and about the same in the Upper Peninsula. Find an update on the Northern Michigan snow here.

Join our Michigan Weather Insider text group here to get quick updates on winter storms.