Most of Michigan at risk for severe weather: Timing, tornado threat breakdown

4Warn Weather – Nearly all of Michigan is in play for severe weather on Thursday, including the chance for tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Lower Peninsula and most of the Upper Peninsula in a risk category for severe storms, with the southern half of the Lower Peninsula with the highest risk.

The entire Lower Peninsula, including Metro Detroit, is listed with a 2% chance of an isolated tornado.

Here’s what to expect by Michigan region:

Metro Detroit severe weather forecast:

Here’s the latest from 4Warn Weather’s Bryan Schuerman: A cold front will move into the region this afternoon, bringing with it potentially severe weather. We’re expecting showers and thunderstorms, which may become strong-to-severe, this afternoon and evening.

The storm prediction center has placed the western part of Metro Detroit and areas west of it under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather. The rest of Metro Detroit will be under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

—> Severe weather in Michigan: What each risk level mean

Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary storm threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out — especially in the areas under a slight risk. Winds will be gusting as high as 25-30 mph most of the day.

I do not think this is going to be a widespread severe weather event for the region. The latest data on Thursday morning suggests a line of thunderstorms will move into the region after 5 p.m.-6 p.m., and should move out of the region by midnight.

West Michigan severe weather forecast:

Here’s the latest from NWS Grand Rapids: A scattered to broken line of storms will move through the area this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Some storms may become strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are main hazards but an isolated tornado threat may develop in the strongest of storms.

Timing: 3 p.m. to 10 p.m.

Northern Lower Michigan severe weather forecast:

Here’s the latest from NWS Gaylord: Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across northern Michigan this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with any strong storms today. While not expected, a tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon.

Timing: 2 p.m. to 8 p.m.

Upper Peninsula severe weather forecast:

Here’s the latest from NWS Marquette: Today brings some gusty northwest winds up to 20 to 30 mph as well as some additional chances for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Dry weather is expected Friday and most of the day Saturday before showers and thunderstorms return.

—> Watches, warnings, risks: Understanding Michigan’s severe weather alert terms