AUD/USD Forecast: China will set the tone in Asia

In Asia

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6490

  • China will publish on Friday the September official NBS PMIs.
  • Falling US equities maintained the pressure on AUD/USD.
  • AUD/USD lost the 0.6500 level and could soon resume its decline.

The AUD/USD pair lost its bullish steam on Thursday and shed part of its recent gains, ending the day at around 0.6490. The greenback strengthened throughout the first half of the day amid stronger US government bond yields, but as yields retreated, so did the USD. Nevertheless, AUD/USD was unable to take advantage of its weakness, as the poor performance of Wall Street undermined demand for the pair.

Following a solid rally on Wednesday, US indexes turned south as investors continue to assess aggressive monetary tightening. Even further, the US Gross Domestic Product was confirmed at -0.6% in Q2, reminding speculative interest the country is in a technical recession regardless of politicians’ optimism.

Early on Friday, Australia will publish August Private Sector Credit, although the focus will be on China. The country will publish the September official NBS Manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing index, while Caixin will publish the Manufacturing PMI. The sector is foreseen holding in contraction territory, while services output is expected to have contracted in the month. Worse-than-anticipated numbers may spur risk aversion and weigh on the pair.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

AUD/USD trades below the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily slump between 0.6915 and 0.6325 at around 0.6495. Technical readings in the daily chart support a bearish extension, as indicators resumed their slides near oversold levels, with the Momentum reaching lower lows for the week. At the same time, the 20 SMA maintains its downward slope well above the current level and below the longer ones.

In the 4-hour chart, the pair barely holds above a mildly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer ones keep sliding far above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, aim modestly higher around neutral levels, failing to anticipate an upward extension. At this point, the pair would need to accelerate through 0.6530, the weekly high, to attract additional buying that could lead to a more sustainable advance.

Support levels:  0.6435 0.6400 0.6360

Resistance levels: 0.6495 0.6530 0.6570  

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Read More: AUD/USD Forecast: China will set the tone in Asia

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